Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
An AI Revolution Bummer
Market Thumbnail: 2/15/2026
Cooling US consumer inflation and more new jobs than expected wasn’t enough to thrill US equity investors this week. Hard to celebrate after the release of two expanded AI algorithms and predictions that AI will be doing most jobs of most people better than they are in two years. US stock investors continued to look for better deals with large-caps (-1.3%) leading small-caps (-0.8%) lower. US Bonds (+3.8%) provided the preferred domestic alternative. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.06%, and the cash yield added a tick to 3.59%, flattening the yield curve to 47 bps. Falling interest rates weakened the Dollar (-0.7%) which pushed the better equity deals abroad as Japan (+5.0%), Asia-Pacific (+1.9%), Latin America (+0.6%), and Europe (+0.3%) all posted gains. The weaker greenback also helped gold (+1.6%), but not commodities (-0.5%) generally or oil (-1.0%). No model changes this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 2/14/2026
Gold Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event posting a record annual gain for any asset in any of our models in thirty years. 2026 began as 2025 ended-- with a parabolic rise in gold, until it suffered an ugly two-day setback in February. It recovered, however, and remains 15% higher five weeks into 2026. Elsewhere, a growing interest in small cap US equities also took a hit this week. International stocks, both emerging and developed, are looking attractive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 2/15/26:
INDEX MOOSE +17%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +3%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
SPY BENCHMARK -1%
2026: Strong gold keeps the Index model in bullion to start 2026. US small caps and or emerging markets may be poised to take over if GLD falters. One more Fed rate cut looks possible but only after Powell has exited in June. Trillions in US federal deficit spending show no signs of abating, but tariffs are putting a slight dent in it.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.