Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- SEP.25.2026
THIS WEEK: 1st MIXED-Risk week after 2 Risk-OFF.
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold DOWN
Pricier Money
As the fallout after last week’s Fed, ECB and BoJ rate hikes settled a bit some trends seemed to solidify, albeit weakly. US small-caps (-0.7%) continued to fade and US large-caps (+1.3%) continued to exhibit limited strength in a narrow set of sectors, mostly tech related. US long bonds (-3.8%) took a header, reaching lows not seen since late 2024. US interest rates rose. The 30-year bond hit 5.50%. With the 10-year bond yield going to 5.18% and the cash yield edging up to 4.07%, the 3m-10y yield curve steepened to 111 bpts, driven mostly by the expectation (93%) of at least one more Fed rate hike and possibly two by December. Higher US interest rates boosted the Dollar (+0.8%) as expected, causing commodities (-0.9%), including gold (-1.9%) and oil (-3.6%) to lose ground. Offshore equities in Europe (+0.4%), Japan (+1.0%), and Asia Pacific (+1.9%) recovered some of last week’s losses. Latin America (-0.8%) continued lower. Two changes in the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (4 of 4 and unchanged week). The Baltic Dry Index, oil and copper prices and bond yields are all higher, making the outlook very positive.
INFLATION: No US data releases. WTI oil prices dipped below $100 for the first week in three Global inflation per the Fed Check (82) increasingly warrants tightening despite the latest rate hike.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Global Product, New Home Sales Up, Durable Goods Flat, Consumers Pessimistic. Yield curve positive and steepening. Recession chances a year out shrinking and minimal. Money market system healthy per SOFR. Above average US growth prospects. GDP Now estimate (Q3) at 5.0% as of 9/24.
FEDERAL RESERVE: 1strate hike since 12/25 rate cut last week. Negative Fed-speak from 5 Fed governors this week. Fed Check (82) remains hawkish. The Fed's balance sheet currently stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.75-4.00%. By December, at least one more Fed rate HIKE (93%) is likely and possibly two.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: There were two model switches this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/25/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets (EEM)
The Global Index Model: HOLD Emerging Markets (EEM) 9/11/2026.
Former #1 US small-caps were a clear sell ahead of the Fed rate decision. IWM was no longer bullish and had a negative and deteriorating PMO. Emerging markets (EEM) took over the top slot leading in CI and with a very bullish technical rating and a positive, improving price momentum oscillator. EEM has weakened since and no longer has the top technical strength rating, but it still leads in positive improving PMO.
Best Alternative: US large-caps (SPY) have the highest technical strength (TS+) but the US is expecting a second rate hike. PMO is deteriorating in every asset in the model except EEM and SPY. Avoid buying into an asset with a deteriorating PMO, even if it is positive.
PERFORMANCE YTD 9/25/26:
INDEX MOOSE +21%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +10%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK +13%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities did well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies. Rate increases in June in Europe and Japan dampened interest in offshore equities in favor of US small caps. September rate hikes including in the US, dampened bullishness everywhere.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.