Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- AUG.14.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION—Risk-ON (3)
THIS WEEK: 3rd Risk-ON week after two Risk-OFF weeks.
US Stocks UP Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds DOWN and Gold UP
GLOBAL RISK ON CONTINUES
Cooling July consumer and producer price inflation and a contraction in July retail sales reinforced recent less hawkish messaging from the Fed but also caused investors to pause and reflect. Meanwhile, as the 60-day “deadline” for a US-Iran nuclear agreement approached (as yet unresolved) oil (+7.3%) rebounded above $80/bbl, pushing commodity prices (+3.8%) higher this week. US Long Bonds retreated (-1.5%) in the face of that threat. Cash yield slipped to 3.70% and the ten-year rose to 4.70% steepening the yield curve to 100 bps. Meanwhile, Gold (+0.8%) continued its August rally on the flat Dollar (+0.1%). US equities also advanced with US small caps (+1.2%) leading large caps (+0.4%) higher. Offshore equities were mixed. Latin America (-2.9%) fell again, while Europe (-0.2%) paused. Japan (+1.4%) and Asia Pacific (+2.0%) were solid. There were no changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4). (unchanged this week).
War has the Baltic Dry Index, copper prices and bond yields higher over the last 13 weeks, all positives. Only oil is down for the quarter.
INFLATION:
July CPI and PPI cooling but still above target. WTI oil prices rose 7.3% this week and are now back above $80 per barrel, still down this quarter. Global inflation per the Fed Check (87) still warrants tightening, but it has improved assisted by rate hikes in Europe and Japan.
US ECONOMIC DATA:
Retail sales contracted in July. Existing home sales weakened. August sentiment positive but slipping. Small business optimism holding up. Recession chances a year out shrinking and minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread: sound. GDP Now estimate (Q3) down as of 8/12: 4.3%.
FEDERAL RESERVE:
The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.75 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting is in late September (9/29). Iran war adds to inflation fears. Fed Check (87) is improving but remains hawkish since 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) After the weak jobs report, odds are now better than 50-50 (56%) that rates will be unchanged at the next Fed meeting in September. By December, however, a Fed rate HIKE (77%) is the most likely outcome.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES:
There were no changes to the models this week.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 8/07/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD US Small-Caps (IWM)
The Global Index Model HOLDS US Small-caps (IWM) 7/13/2026.
EEM leads in overall confidence among Global assets, but it lags in technical strength and price momentum (PMO). It triggered a buy-stop this week (8/12) which has yet to be confirmed, leaving incumbent IWM in the Global model’s top slot again this week. IWM’s technical strength is very bullish and its PMO is positive and improving,
Best Alternative: Developed Markets (EFA) are a go should the buy-stop confirm. Confirmation means 50-day SMA keeps rising, closing price remains above 50-day and above initial stop-loss level. Absent that, Large-cap High Dividend (SPYD) also has strong technicals and a positive (but deteriorating) PMO.
Volatility Alert: IWM has an unfilled downside gap (249-259) from April 8 that it could revisit.
The Global Index Model continues to outperform the S&P, all Buy-and-Hold allocations, and the USES and TSP models in a major way. *stop-loss, **buy-stop, ***note
PERFORMANCE YTD 8/14/26:
INDEX MOOSE +23%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +11%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +5%
SPY BENCHMARK +14%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities did well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies. Rate increases in June in Europe and Japan dampened interest in offshore equities.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.