Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- JUL.03.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— MIXED-Risk (1)
THIS WEEK the first MIXED-Risk week after 1 Risk-ON:
US Stocks MIXED, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
EQUITIES MIXED AFTER WEAK JOBS
The bad news: we got a weak June jobs report this week. The good news: investors convinced themselves that it might just be what the economy needed to take pressure off the Fed to raise rates anytime soon. Bond prices (-2.3%) fell despite the unexpectedly weak economic data. The US ten-year yield rose 12 bps to 4.49% and the three-month yield rose 1 tick 3.67%, steepening the yield curve to 83 basis points. Equities were less certain bad news was good. US Large-cap US stocks (+2.2%) rebounded from last week’s loss, but small caps (-0.8%) rethought last week’s gain. Abroad, Latin America (-0.4%) and Asia Pacific (-2.5%) continued lower, while Europe (+2.6%) and Japan (+0.4%) rebounded. The Dollar weakened (-0.4%) helping gold (+1.4%) but not oil (-1.4%), or commodities (- 3.1). There was one change to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4). (Improved this week). War has the Baltic Dry Index, copper prices and bond yields higher over the last 13 weeks, all positives. Only oil is down for the quarter.
INFLATION: No new price data. Oil prices continue lower this week and quarter, however, and are now back below $70/bbl. Global inflation per Fed Check (91) still warrants tightening, but it is improving and oil falls.
US ECONOMIC DATA: JUNE CONFIDENCE AND PAYROLLS WEAKER, MANUFACTURING EXPANDING MORE SLOWLY. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread: sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) DOWN as of 6/24: 1.2%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.72 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting is in late July (7/29). Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell May 22. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (91) is improving but remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) The odds are 78% that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting in July. By December, however, a Fed rate HIKE (77%) is the most likely outcome.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: One change. The TSP model switches to small-cap equities (S Fund). The GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM). USES model holds Momentum since 5/22/26.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 7/03/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM (since 04/13/26.) The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now winding down and oil prices falling, however, inflation fears have mitigated, and gold has lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 7/03/26:
INDEX MOOSE +21%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +8%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +3%
SPY BENCHMARK +9%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.