Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
“End of A Civilization” Postponed
Market Thumbnail: 4/10/2026
This week the markets celebrated a last-minute announcement last Tuesday that the US would not be ending a civilization as President Trump put it by obliterating Iran’s bridges and power plants. Instead, a ceasefire would continue through April 22 while the two sides negotiate positions that appear fundamentally incompatible. The sudden ceasefire caused a gap higher in equity prices on Wednesday. Emerging markets (+7.0%) led the way paced by Asia-Pacific (+6.8%) and Latin America (+6.2%). Developed foreign markets (+4.3%) including Europe (+4.5%) and Japan (+3.3%) also rallied. In the US, small-caps (+4.0%) led large-caps (+3.6%) higher while long Treasuries were flat (0.0%). The 3m-10y yield curve flattened to a slope of 73 bps this week, as the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.32%, and the 3-month cash yield fell to 3.59%. Commodities (-2.8%) and oil (-9.5%) reversed themselves. The Dollar fell (-1.5%), and gold (+1.8%) managed to get a solid bid as a result.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK-’S ACTION—Risk ON (2)
THIS WEEK saw a 2nd Risk-ON week in a row. US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK STAYS “POSITIVE” (3 of 4). War has the Baltic Dry Index up over the quarter, a positive along with 10-year US yields, and oil prices. Only copper is lower in the past quarter— a negative indication for global construction.
INFLATION: Oil below $100. March CPI hot due to war-time gasoline prices. Core CPI much cooler.
US ECONOMIC DATA: Poor. Spending Solid; Personal Income, Durable Orders, Sentiment Down
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.69 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%.
Next Fed meeting (4/29). Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in May. War has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) No December Fed rate change (71%) outweighs chance of cut (27%) or hike (2%).
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: The TSP model returns to International equities (I Fund). USES and GLOBAL Index remain in cash.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 4/10/2026
INDEX MODEL: Holding MMF Cash
THIS WEEK: Hold CASH since 3/18/26 via stop.
Gold (GLD) leads in overall confidence and rate of change, but not in technical strength or positive PMO. GLD is working off a stop loss, however, which keeps cash in the index model’s top position.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. Until the gap is filled or the war is over, cash remains the safer choice. All equities have lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now stoking oil inflation fears and prompting Fed rate cut pessimism in 2026, gold has lost some luster.
PERFORMANCE YTD 4/10/26:
INDEX MOOSE +12%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +2%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +1%
SPY BENCHMARK -0%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty, and the model goes to cash. Now the war in Iran has solidified that psition.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.