Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets
Executive Summary-- JUN.19.2026
GLOBAL MARKETS: WEEK’S ACTION— Risk-OFF (3)
THIS WEEK a 3rd Risk-OFF week after 2 Risk-ON:
US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks MIXED, Bonds UP and Gold UP.
SECOND THOUGHTS?
US stocks gapped up on the announcement of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding to start the week, but enthusiasm waned as details came out. The hawkish tenor to Chairman Warsh’s first FOMC meeting on Wednesday also dampened enthusiasm. Even so, US small caps (+1.1%) led US large caps (+0.9%) higher for a second week, while equities offshore were mixed. Asia-Pacific (+5.1%) and Japan (+4.4%) saw healthy advances while Europe (-0.2%) stalled, and Latin America (-1.5%) retreated. US long bond prices (+2.1%) rallied as the US ten-year yield dropped 5 bps to 4.45% and the three-month yield rose to 3.66%, flattening the yield curve to 79 basis points. The Dollar added +1.3% contributing to weaker oil (-8.4%) and commodities generally (-3.2%), but gold (+0.2%) held its own. There were no changes to the models this week.
GLOBAL OUTLOOK POSITIVE (3 of 4). No change. War has the Baltic Dry Index, the 10-year US yield, and copper prices are all higher over the last 13 weeks. Only oil is down for the quarter.
INFLATION: Export-Import inflation warming as expected given recent constraints in oil supply. Oil prices down this week and quarter, and below $75/bbl. Global inflation per Fed Check (84) still warrants tightening, but it is improving.
US ECONOMIC DATA: PRODUCTION AND HOUSING WEAK, RETAIL SALES GOOD. Recession chance a year out minimal. Financial system health per SOFR-T spread: sound. GDP Now estimate (Q2) UP as of 6/17: 3.0%.
FEDERAL RESERVE: The Fed's balance sheet stands at $6.74 trillion, with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%. Next Fed meeting is in late July (7/29). Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh replaced Jerome Powell May 22. Iran war has spiked inflation fears. Fed Check (84) improved but remains hawkish as of 1/30/2026 (market price of hard assets going up faster than the market price of paper promises.) The odds are 61% that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting in July, but chances of a December Fed rate HIKE (56%) are still greater than 50-50.
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: No change. The TSP model holds International equities (I Fund). The GLOBAL Index model holds Emerging Markets (EEM). USES model holds Momentum since 5/22/26.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 6/12/2026
INDEX MODEL: HOLD Emerging Markets
THIS WEEK: HOLD EEM since 04/13/26. The model defaulted to the second choice (EEM) behind bullion (GLD) in mid-April due to performance. EEM advanced to #1 rank in mid-May.
Best Alternative: Emerging Markets gapped higher triggering a buy-stop 4/8/26. All US equities lagged gold due to a weaker Dollar from US tariffs. With the Iran/US war now winding down and oil prices falling, however, inflation fears have mitigated, and gold has lost some luster. Developed International equities are also weakening due to energy supply concerns in Europe and Asia.
PERFORMANCE YTD 6/19/26:
INDEX MOOSE +31%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +10%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +5%
SPY BENCHMARK +10%
2026: Strong gold kept the Index model in bullion to start 2026, supported by the notion of at least one more Fed rate cut in 2026. That support evaporated at the March FOMC meeting when chairman Powell admitted the bank's uncertainty. Meanwhile offshore equities have done well with US tariffs ginning their product prices higher, especially emerging (commodity based) economies.
THE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.