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GOLD and Foreign Equities
LAST YEAR: The USES Model out-performed the S&P and all B&H. The Index Model lagged the S&P benchmark and Aggressive B&H.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs continuing through September, foreign equities and hard assets appear to have the best future prospects.
THIS WEEK: For private investors the Index Model is outperforming the S&P and diversified B&H in 2025. The USES model (and the S&P) are LAGGING Aggressive B&H .
It was the 2nd Risk-ON week in a row: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP, and Gold UP.
TSP: Most AGGRESSIVE B&H EXCELS
TSP THIS YEAR: Weak US stocks through January put the TSP model into cash in February helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting cash in late April for International stocks as markets improved has turned out to be the only switch since. With the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18, and trillions in federal deficit spending continuing through September, equities and hard assets appear to have the best future prospects.
The TSP Timing Model is now competitive with all Buy-and-Hold Lifetime Funds in 2025. For buy and hold investors: Aggressive allocations are out-performing conservative portfolios.
It was the 2nd Risk-ON week in a row: US Stocks UP, Foreign Stocks UP, Bonds UP, and Gold UP.