Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Worldwide Fed Rally Takes a Breather
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 9/26/25:
With core PCE inflation looking calm and US data on housing, durable goods, income, and spending looking solid, the equity markets backed off after a three-week run to overbought levels. US indices hit new record highs early on but then pulled back slightly, with US small caps leading large caps lower. The bond market cooled as long bonds took a breather from their post-rate-cut rally. As the 10-year yield rose to 4.19%, the cash yield dipped another two basis points to 3.86%. Foreign equities were mostly down as well. Latin America aside, Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, Japan, and Europe all lost ground. A stronger Dollar may have weighed on foreign equities, but it didn’t slow the bounce in hard assets. Commodities were led higher by oil and gold. It was the first Risk-OFF week after three Risk-ON: US Stocks down, Foreign Stocks down, Bonds flat, and Gold up. The Models: one change.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 9/26/25
Index Model Posts Record Return
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
Strong demand for gold continues, backed by a the rumor of two future Fed rate cuts before year-end. Expected dips after last week's FOMC decision have yet to alleviate GLD's overbought condition. Gold and equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not. Among equities, foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign equities, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch back to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs continuing through September, foreign equities and hard assets appear to have the best future prospects.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +59.5%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +14.2%
SPY BENCHMARK +12.9%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +9.0%
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.