Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Pivoting-on-the-Pivot
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 11/16/25:
Three months ago, the Fed pivoted from inflation worries to job concerns and began easing US interest rates. After two meetings the chairman decided to pivot-on-the-pivot and snatch away the December punch bowl. This week two voting Fed Presidents joined Chairman Powell in opposing an expected December rate cut. Global markets have been down since the Fed’s last meeting but this week the negativity faded, at least abroad. Europe, Latin America, Japan and Asia Pacific all enjoyed gains, thanks in part to a weaker Dollar. The weaker Dollar also helped hard assets like gold, the commodity index and oil. US markets were not so sanguine. US large-caps were flat, but small-caps continued to get hit hard, as did US long Treasury bonds. No model switches.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 11/16/25
Index Model Recovers
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
The Index Model has had a record run in 2025, a once in a lifetime event. A month ago it posted a record annual year-to-date gain, most of it from gold. But gold was severely overbought and its time was limited. Increasingly hawkish Fed-speak has weighed on gold and equities in November. It eventually corrected but did not trigger a stop-loss before rallying this week. (See Moospeak.) Even so, Emerging markets and US Large-caps also remain more attractive than cash, but another rate cut is key to that attractiveness. Recommendation: If you're in GLD expect support at the 50-day SMA or 20-day stop-loss. If neither holds, the model will exit. If you want to buy into gold, GLD is currently selling at a 7% discount to its all time high.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +51%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +16%
SPY BENCHMARK +15%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +10%
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut on 9/18. With rate cuts and trillions in US federal deficit spending gold and hard assets should have solid future prospects.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years in one iteration or another. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.