What is Decision Moose and why should I care?

Decision Moose is an automated framework for making intermediate-term investment decisions. Several versions (models) are run weekly applying the same, or a slightly modified, technical analysis framework to various asset groupings. Essentially the framework is based on three established Wall Street adages:

Don't fight the Fed
Don't fight the Market
Don't fight the Tape

Index Moose, the version presented on this site, evaluates nine index funds to determine which broad asset class currently provides the greatest opportunity for gain. The model's underlying assumption is that global finance is a closed system, and that investment capital, when it leaves one class of assets, has to go somewhere else. Index Moose attempts to track that flow using the following funds:

Cash or Money Market Fund (3 month Treasury)
Long-term zero-coupon Treasury bonds (EDV)
Large cap US stocks (SPY)
Small cap US stocks (IWM)
Gold Bullion (GLD)
Europe 350 stocks (IEV)
Latin America 40 stocks (ILF)
Japan stocks (EWJ)
Asia Pacific ex-Japan stocks (AXJL))

When the model gives a signal, 100% of the portfolio is immediately switched from the previous position to the new one. (On average, three or four switches per year can be expected.) Since the model is intended to provide significant capital gains, it may be best, but not exclusively, employed in tax-deferred accounts (IRA's, SEP's, etc.)

TO FIND OUT MORE about market timing in general and Index Moose in particular, check The FAQs for any of our Frequently Asked Questions.
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