Investment Newsletter: Stock Market & Investment Strategies
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE A TOUGH INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
DECISION MOOSE-- Global Investment Markets This Week
Uncle Sam Takes a Break
Market Thumbnail: WEEK through 10/3/25:
The Federal government ran out of money and had to (partially) shut down this week when the Senate failed to pass a continuing resolution that would have kept things open until the new year. US equities seemed to like the closure, with US small caps leading large caps higher. US long bonds also resumed their post-rate-cut rally, helped by a very weak private sector jobs report. As the 10-year yield fell to 4.12%, the cash yield held steady at 3.86%. Foreign equities were mostly up as well. Latin America was the exception, while Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, Europe, and Japan all gained ground. A negative Dollar helped gold and foreign equities, but it wasn’t enough to save oil and commodities. It was the first Risk-ON week after one Risk-OFF: US stocks up, foreign stocks mostly up, bonds up, and gold up. The Models: No change.
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL-- SUMMARY 10/03/25
Index Model Posts Record Return
THIS WEEK: Holding #1 Gold (GLD) since 8/28/25 @313.07 via buy-stop after switching out of #2 EFA.
Strong demand for gold continues, backed by a the rumor of two future Fed rate cuts before year-end. Expected dips after last week's FOMC decision have yet to alleviate GLD's overbought condition. Gold and equities are more attractive than cash. Only very long bonds (EDV) are not. Among equities, foreign are more attractive than US, and among foreign equities, emerging markets are currently more attractive than developed. Recommendation: If you're in gold, hang tight. If not, wait for a dip from current overbought levels to get in.
THIS YEAR: Strong gold and weak US stocks put the Index model into gold from January through April helping us to avoid the March-April V-bottom in equities caused by the tariff announcement. Exiting gold, which had flattened by mid-May, for International stocks set up a period of vacillation between gold and international stocks that ended with a switch back to gold in late August, ahead of the first Fed rate cut expected 9/18. With rate cuts, trillions in US federal deficit spending, and US tariffs weakening the Dollar through December, foreign equities and hard assets still have excellent future prospects.
PERFORMANCE YEAR-TO-DATE:
INDEX MOOSE +69.7%
AOA (Aggressive Growth) +15.6%
SPY BENCHMARK +14.2%
AOM (Moderate Growth) +9.6%
THE FREE GLOBAL INDEX MODEL has been around for 34-years. It is a momentum-based market timing model the latest version of which compares the relative strength of ETFs representing US stocks (SPY, IWM) and international stocks (EFA, EEM)) along with US Treasuries (SHY, EDV) and Gold (GLD) in order to pick the single best asset class in which to invest your money. Rankings provide the basis for the Moosecalls global financial newsletter, and have in the past been a solid predictive tool. They provide a general direction (stocks, bonds, precious metals, cash) for allocating investment assets. A daily signal, it is provided here for free once a week as a guideline only.